February 25, 2003

Depopulation Crisis

The good news: Russia's birth rate is finally up to record levels.

The decade following the collapse of the Soviet Union saw a dramatic drop in Russia's birth rate. (I tracked this statistic closely since I was the largest importer of condoms into Siberia during the same period.) As the years went by and few Russian babies appeared, there were cries--by adults--of an international conspiracy to depopulate Russia. But the sad truth is that abortion, the most common form of birth control during Soviet times, remained a modern Russian woman's first choice for birth control. The number of pregnancies ended by Russian doctors dwarfed the number of pregnancies (and infections of HIV) prevented from ever starting by the shipping containers full of condoms I managed to get to Siberia.

There was no international conspiracy, just extreme economic hardship that made having kids in Russia just too difficult for young parents. (Which is ironic given that demographers have observed a correlation between higher GDP/capita and lower birth rates, as witnessed in the US, Japan, Europe as opposed the high birthrates and low GDP/capita of, say, sub-Saharan Africa.)

The bad news: Russia's death rate also spiked to levels not seen since WWII.

The net result: Russia's population is at 143.1 million and still decreasing.

More revealing statistics.

Posted by Xander at February 25, 2003 07:08 AM | TrackBack
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